- A tropical disturbance will track through the western Gulf of Mexico through Saturday.
- It is likely to organize into a tropical depression or storm prior to moving inland Saturday night.
- Regardless of development, this system could enhance rainfall in South Texas, but major impacts are not expected.
A disturbance will track across the western Gulf of Mexico through Saturday where it is likely to develop into a tropical storm and possibly enhance rainfall as far north as South Texas.
The system, named Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Four, is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico right now and is moving northwestward.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses this naming convention to identify disturbances that could produce winds greater than 40 mph before they attain a closed center of circulation, a requirement for tropical depression status.
A Hurricane Hunter mission into this system Friday afternoon did not find a center of circulation.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. In Mexico, a tropical storm warning is in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande River southward to Boca de Catan.
This means tropical storm-force winds are expected within these areas in the next 36 hours.
PTC Four will have limited time over the Gulf. It will track toward the coast of northeast Mexico and likely move ashore by Saturday night.
Some strengthening is forecast and this disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm at some point before landfall. It will be named Danielle when this upgrade takes place.
Forecast Path
(The future center of this system is most likely to stay in the area shaded in red. )
Some minor storm surge is possible in this area, which includes South Padre Island. Rough surf and rip currents are possible. It is best to stay out of the water in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Some bands of locally heavy rain could trigger flash flooding in parts of northeast Mexico and Deep South Texas through Saturday night or early Sunday where another tropical disturbance brought flooding last weekend.
However, we do not expect a widespread, heavy soaking rain like we saw in South Texas this past Sunday and Monday.
Rainfall Forecast
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.
)
Hurricane season is entering its typical peak in activity which includes late August, September and early October.
Check back to weather.com frequently for updates on what to expect in the Atlantic through the coming weeks.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
